Johnson hints that defence is the key to World Cup success

Martin Johnson has given us the biggest indication yet of how he wants his England side to play in this autumn’s Rugby World Cup. Forget the forty who remain; it’s the five who were released on Monday that shows the direction of this young yet ambitious squad.

First, let’s commiserate Leicester number eight Thomas Waldrom who’s been struggling with injury. The like-for-like ready-made replacement for Nick Easter was probably number three in the pecking order behind Easter and James Haskell anyway, but injury has not helped his cause. Hopefully Waldrom will be in the mix for 2015 if he can build on the magnificent season he’s had for his club this year. Both Easter and Haskell should make the plane to New Zealand.

Waldrom’s Leicester team mate George Chuter’s omission from Johnson’s World Cup squad shows that the England manager is looking for a balance of raw power (Dylan Hartley and Steve Thompson) as well as pace and off-loading (Lee Mears) from his hookers. Unfortunately for Chuter, his solid performances for his club have left him just coming up short. I therefore expect Hartley, Thompson and Mears to make the cut. I’m delighted that prop Matt Stevens is still in the mix and hope he gets back to his form pre-ban. Along with Andrew Sheridan, Stevens must be a firm favourite to be on the plane, along with Dan Cole, Alex Corbisiero and Paul Doran-Jones. I expect Tim Payne and David Wilson to miss out.

Veteran Joe Worsley is unlucky to miss out in the very competitive battle for the back row. Johnson is looking for a balance of sheer pace (Tom Croft and Tom Wood), explosive power (Lewis Moody and Haskell), combined with the off-loading and ball-handling skills of Easter. Hendre Fourie and Chris Robshaw look set to miss out on a place in Johnson’s final 30, although Robshaw’s leadership skills at Harlequins may just see him pip Wood to the final back row place. My concern is that Worsley’s defensive game may be missed when England come up against a hard-hitting centre who attacks the fly-half/inside centre channel (e.g. Wales’ Jamie Roberts).

The final pair to be omitted from Johnson’s squad are two wingers David Strettle and James Simpson-Daniel. This gives the clearest indication yet that Johnson believes this World Cup will be won by the team who has the best defence. Whilst Strettle and Simpson-Daniel are probably amongst the two best finishers in the Premiership, Johnson clearly believes their defence is not up to the mark.

In terms of attack then, the indications are that England will not go wide off the first phase. Rather, they will attack up the middle with their powerful back row and centres, bringing in Mark Cueto and Chris Ashton off their wings as they did to great effect in the Six Nations. Ugo Monye and Charlie Sharples will battle it out for the final wing berth and if Johnson follows his pattern, the player with the strongest defence will be on the plane.

England need to find a centre pairing which is both defensively solid and which creates and, most importantly, executes, attacking chances. Hopefully Ricky Flutey will be back to his best after injury problems last year. Flutey’s ability to play at either inside or outside centre as well as fly half should see him make the cut. Shontayne Hape’s ability to put others outside him into space should also see him make the final 30.

So, to England’s ever-present problem: outside centre. I still feel Matt Banahan does not have the explosive pace to excel at international level and suspect he may be left behind in the UK. That leaves the experienced Mike Tindall who should make the cut and uncapped Manu Tuilagi. It will be interesting to see how Tuilagi plays against Wales this Saturday to see if he lives up to the hype. He certainly has the power in defence and the pace in attack, but does he have the temperament to match?

Finally, the lineout and distribution of possession from it will be key to England’s success this autumn. Given that Croft can play in the second row, I expect Simon Shaw, Tom Palmer and of course Courtney Lawes to make the final cut. Toby Flood and the ever-reliable Jonny Wilkinson must be favourites to be on the plane as England’s fly half options, which sees Charlie Hodgson missing out. Hodgson’s distribution is outstanding, but Johnson is likely to question his defence. The England manager is likely to take three scrum halves to New Zealand and I expect Ben Youngs, Danny Care and Joe Simpson to be on the plane with Richard Wigglesworth missing out.

For those who are left out, however, the dream is not over. England play three tough warm-up matches in August (two against Wales home and away and one in Ireland) and players are bound to pick up injuries. I’m sure those who don’t make the cut will have their bags packed and their passports at the ready.

My World Cup squad at 5 August:

Props (5) Cole, Corbisiero, Doran-Jones, Sheridan, Stevens,
Hookers (3) Hartley, Mears, Thompson
Locks (3) Lawes, Palmer, Shaw
Back row (5) Croft, Easter, Haskell, Moody, Wood
Scrum halves (3) Care, Simpson, Youngs
Fly halves (2) Flood, Wilkinson
Centres (4) Flutey, Hape, Tindall, Tuilagi
Wings (3) Ashton, Cueto, Sharples
Full backs (2)Armitage, Foden