Under pressure?

Martin Johnson gets a final look at his England squad tomorrow before he has to select his squad of 30 for New Zealand. So, let’s take a look at who’s under pressure:

Manu Tuilagi’s strong performance at outside centre last week should see him make Johnson’s final 30. His ability to break the first tackle in attack and shuddering tackling in defence gives England’s midfield some much needed dynamism. I do question Tuilagi’s composure though (he tends to rush up in defence a little too quickly and therefore misses tackles and he very nearly floored Shane Williams with a dangerously high tackle) so he will need to be surrounded by level-headed colleagues. Jonny Wilkinson is one such player and Mike Tindall (captain tomorrow) is another so both should be on the plane. Ricky Flutey combined well with Wilkinson and Tuilagi last week and, combined with his ability to play fly half, should be in the 30. That leaves Shontayne Hape and Matt Banahan as the two players under most pressure. As much as I don’t feel Banahan has the pace off the mark or skill to succeed at international level, he did give the England forwards a target going forward. Banahan’s ability to play on the wing may just see him pip Hape to a place in the final 30.

In the front row, Matt Stevens made a terrific return to international rugby. He totally destroyed a (somewhat weak) Welsh front row, setting up James Haskell’s try from the base of the scrum. Although Haskell scored, Stevens should certainly get the credit. (As an aside, I hope Haskell got fined for his ridiculous celebration – plopping over the line from three metres did not warrant such histrionics!). Paul Doran-Jones and Tim Payne have not featured in either match so are likely to miss out on a final place in the squad. Given that Johnson is likely to choose five props due to Andrew Sheridan’s continued recovery from injury, David Wilson is therefore likely to fill the fifth spot. Dylan Hartley had a quiet match last week but that’s no bad thing. His lineout throwing was very solid – a weakness in the past – and he scrummaged well alongside Stevens. Steve Thompson has a chance to put some pressure on Hartley for a place in Johnson’s starting XV and along with Lee Mears will keep competition for the number two slot strong.

Delon Armitage also played well last week at full back. He was very solid under the high ball and ran well from deep. His ability to simply ghost around players gives the England attack another dimension. Given that he can cover outside centre as well as full back means his place in the squad is secure. This week, Johnson gives a chance to his first choice back three of Ben Foden, Mark Cueto and Chris Ashton to see what they can do. Foden, in particular, will want to re-affirm that he’s Johnson’s first choice full back. Charlie Sharples looked very much at home in his short spell on the pitch last week and given that Ugo Monye has not been picked for each game means the Harlequins winger is likely to be the one to miss out.

At scrum half, Danny Care looked off the pace last week and was outplayed by Richard Wigglesworth, who kicked well from the base and delivered a speedier service to Wilkinson (and Charlie Hodgson very late in the game – what was the point of that?). Wigglesworth gets a chance to start at number nine this week and looks set to be on the plane given that Wasps’ Joe Simpson has yet to feature in either warm-up match. Although Care was off the pace, he’s likely to still make the squad alongside Ben Youngs who’s still recovering from knee surgery. At fly half, Wilkinson’s man of the match performance last week still proves he’s still got what it takes at international level (was there any doubt?) and it’s over to Toby Flood to put the pressure back on Wilkinson for a spot in the starting XV.

Simon Shaw’s experience in the second row should see him make the plane ahead of Louis Deacon. However, Deacon did play quite well in the Six Nations so has a chance to prove a point to Johnson this week. Tom Palmer provided a solid platform in the lineout last week, so his place in the squad looks secure alongside Courtney Lawes. As I said last week, Tom Croft’s ability to play in the second row means that Johnson will probably be able to afford to take just three specialist locks. Johnson will be concerned about the injury to captain Lewis Moody and it will be interesting to see how Hendre Fourie plays this week. The question Johnson needs to ask himself is whether a less-than-100% Moody is worth a place in his squad. I believe he is, which means Tom Woods’ place in the squad is safe. Woods has a chance to combine with the experienced Nick Easter in the back row this week and both will need to be at their best to combat the excellent Welsh open side Sam Warburton.

A prediction for tomorrow I hear you cry? Wales have plenty to prove and I expect their centres Jamie Roberts and Gavin Henson to outplay Hape and Tindall. However, given Wales’ inability to provide a solid platform at scrum time last week, the Welsh backs may not really get a chance to cut loose. Expect England to dominate up front, Wigglesworth to kick from the base for Ashton and Cueto to chase and Foden to counter-attack at every opportunity. The atmosphere is bound to be electric – let’s hope the rugby is too.

My squad of 30 at 12 August contains three changes from the squad I would have picked last week:

Props (5)

Cole
Corbisiero
Wilson
Sheridan
Stevens

Hookers (3)

Hartley
Mears
Thompson

Locks (3)

Lawes
Palmer
Shaw

Back row (5)

Croft
Easter
Haskell
Moody
Wood

Scrum halves (3)

Care
Wigglesworth
Youngs

Fly halves (2)

Flood
Wilkinson

Centres (4)

Banahan
Flutey
Tindall
Tuilagi

Wings (3)

Ashton
Cueto
Sharples

Full backs (2)

Armitage
Foden

Johnson hints that defence is the key to World Cup success

Martin Johnson has given us the biggest indication yet of how he wants his England side to play in this autumn’s Rugby World Cup. Forget the forty who remain; it’s the five who were released on Monday that shows the direction of this young yet ambitious squad.

First, let’s commiserate Leicester number eight Thomas Waldrom who’s been struggling with injury. The like-for-like ready-made replacement for Nick Easter was probably number three in the pecking order behind Easter and James Haskell anyway, but injury has not helped his cause. Hopefully Waldrom will be in the mix for 2015 if he can build on the magnificent season he’s had for his club this year. Both Easter and Haskell should make the plane to New Zealand.

Waldrom’s Leicester team mate George Chuter’s omission from Johnson’s World Cup squad shows that the England manager is looking for a balance of raw power (Dylan Hartley and Steve Thompson) as well as pace and off-loading (Lee Mears) from his hookers. Unfortunately for Chuter, his solid performances for his club have left him just coming up short. I therefore expect Hartley, Thompson and Mears to make the cut. I’m delighted that prop Matt Stevens is still in the mix and hope he gets back to his form pre-ban. Along with Andrew Sheridan, Stevens must be a firm favourite to be on the plane, along with Dan Cole, Alex Corbisiero and Paul Doran-Jones. I expect Tim Payne and David Wilson to miss out.

Veteran Joe Worsley is unlucky to miss out in the very competitive battle for the back row. Johnson is looking for a balance of sheer pace (Tom Croft and Tom Wood), explosive power (Lewis Moody and Haskell), combined with the off-loading and ball-handling skills of Easter. Hendre Fourie and Chris Robshaw look set to miss out on a place in Johnson’s final 30, although Robshaw’s leadership skills at Harlequins may just see him pip Wood to the final back row place. My concern is that Worsley’s defensive game may be missed when England come up against a hard-hitting centre who attacks the fly-half/inside centre channel (e.g. Wales’ Jamie Roberts).

The final pair to be omitted from Johnson’s squad are two wingers David Strettle and James Simpson-Daniel. This gives the clearest indication yet that Johnson believes this World Cup will be won by the team who has the best defence. Whilst Strettle and Simpson-Daniel are probably amongst the two best finishers in the Premiership, Johnson clearly believes their defence is not up to the mark.

In terms of attack then, the indications are that England will not go wide off the first phase. Rather, they will attack up the middle with their powerful back row and centres, bringing in Mark Cueto and Chris Ashton off their wings as they did to great effect in the Six Nations. Ugo Monye and Charlie Sharples will battle it out for the final wing berth and if Johnson follows his pattern, the player with the strongest defence will be on the plane.

England need to find a centre pairing which is both defensively solid and which creates and, most importantly, executes, attacking chances. Hopefully Ricky Flutey will be back to his best after injury problems last year. Flutey’s ability to play at either inside or outside centre as well as fly half should see him make the cut. Shontayne Hape’s ability to put others outside him into space should also see him make the final 30.

So, to England’s ever-present problem: outside centre. I still feel Matt Banahan does not have the explosive pace to excel at international level and suspect he may be left behind in the UK. That leaves the experienced Mike Tindall who should make the cut and uncapped Manu Tuilagi. It will be interesting to see how Tuilagi plays against Wales this Saturday to see if he lives up to the hype. He certainly has the power in defence and the pace in attack, but does he have the temperament to match?

Finally, the lineout and distribution of possession from it will be key to England’s success this autumn. Given that Croft can play in the second row, I expect Simon Shaw, Tom Palmer and of course Courtney Lawes to make the final cut. Toby Flood and the ever-reliable Jonny Wilkinson must be favourites to be on the plane as England’s fly half options, which sees Charlie Hodgson missing out. Hodgson’s distribution is outstanding, but Johnson is likely to question his defence. The England manager is likely to take three scrum halves to New Zealand and I expect Ben Youngs, Danny Care and Joe Simpson to be on the plane with Richard Wigglesworth missing out.

For those who are left out, however, the dream is not over. England play three tough warm-up matches in August (two against Wales home and away and one in Ireland) and players are bound to pick up injuries. I’m sure those who don’t make the cut will have their bags packed and their passports at the ready.

My World Cup squad at 5 August:

Props (5) Cole, Corbisiero, Doran-Jones, Sheridan, Stevens,
Hookers (3) Hartley, Mears, Thompson
Locks (3) Lawes, Palmer, Shaw
Back row (5) Croft, Easter, Haskell, Moody, Wood
Scrum halves (3) Care, Simpson, Youngs
Fly halves (2) Flood, Wilkinson
Centres (4) Flutey, Hape, Tindall, Tuilagi
Wings (3) Ashton, Cueto, Sharples
Full backs (2)Armitage, Foden